Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.050418 0.057378 0.065167 0.074570 0.085668 0.098415 0.114258
2025-12-14 0.039301 0.047708 0.057892 0.071273 0.088588 0.110518 0.140842
2025-12-21 0.030097 0.038474 0.049295 0.064551 0.085917 0.115421 0.160407
2025-12-28 0.025288 0.033949 0.045847 0.063825 0.091092 0.132275 0.202027
2026-01-04 0.021938 0.030828 0.043775 0.064691 0.099025 0.155861 0.263476
2026-01-11 0.018979 0.027784 0.041300 0.064532 0.105638 0.180066 0.337866
2026-01-18 0.016551 0.025151 0.039010 0.064262 0.112292 0.207336 0.433766
2026-01-25 0.014269 0.022394 0.036052 0.062262 0.115495 0.229947 0.535256
2026-02-01 0.012221 0.019717 0.032789 0.059044 0.115602 0.246854 0.636919
2026-02-08 0.010949 0.018185 0.031304 0.058977 0.122572 0.283412 0.825868
2026-02-15 0.009892 0.016882 0.030026 0.059085 0.130223 0.326384 1.081818
2026-02-22 0.009075 0.015903 0.029212 0.060049 0.140555 0.383593 1.466094
2026-03-01 0.008311 0.014939 0.028316 0.060774 0.151176 0.450903 2.014723
2026-03-08 0.007481 0.013734 0.026725 0.059501 0.156020 0.503754 2.606153
2026-03-15 0.006530 0.012162 0.024105 0.055072 0.149967 0.513229 2.970422
2026-03-22 0.006030 0.011465 0.023321 0.055293 0.159099 0.594015 4.098303
2026-03-29 0.005664 0.011001 0.022996 0.056721 0.173294 0.713478 6.070085
2026-04-05 0.005279 0.010447 0.022372 0.057172 0.184512 0.833141 8.753666
2026-04-12 0.004926 0.009918 0.021728 0.057427 0.195442 0.967764 12.735643
2026-04-19 0.004534 0.009255 0.020647 0.056074 0.199340 1.067023 17.194540
2026-04-26 0.004132 0.008527 0.019295 0.053545 0.197133 1.125026 21.618377
2026-05-03 0.003888 0.008143 0.018792 0.053741 0.207905 1.302084 32.850040
2026-05-10 0.003672 0.007800 0.018350 0.054051 0.219734 1.514721 51.823764